Lifestyle & Culture
An FTC examiner recommended rejecting a request to lower the 90% supply floor to 70%, but the full commission had not issued a final order as of the reporting cutoff.
Information cutoff: 2026-09-30 22:25 KST
Prepared: 2026-09-30 22:37 KST
AI-assisted public-source analysis · Private draft · Awaiting human editorial review
Original comparison based on the FTC order and its Sept. 30, 2026 release. It shows an annual route-level supply metric, not load factor on individual flights.
공정거래위원회 · 대한항공-아시아나 기업결합 관련 시정조치 불이행 및 시정조치 변경신청 건 심의 절차 개시 · 공정거래위원회 결정문 공개본, CaseNote 열람 경로 · 공정거래위원회 의결2024-364: 대한항공 등 5개 항공운송사업자의 기업결합 제한규정 위반행위에 대한 건 관련 시정조치 변경처분
Visual: original explanatory diagram. No third-party photograph or chart reproduced.
At a glance
- The 90% floor for Incheon-Guam and Busan-Guam is an annual, route-level seat-supply requirement in a merger remedy, not a load-factor rule for each flight.
- The airline group sought both a 70% floor and recognition of voluntary slot returns as completion of the structural remedy.
The examiner found no qualifying new change in circumstances after Dec.
24, 2024. - The remedy is designed to preserve capacity, fare and service safeguards, and an opening for replacement-carrier entry while competition is being restored after the merger.
Three passengers make a striking anecdote, not the regulatory metric
Reports said that three passengers were on KE2260 from Guam to Busan on November 7, 2025.
That single operation cannot establish annual demand for the route or compliance with the remedy.
The FTC rule measures annual seats on each route against 90% of seats in the same 2019 period, rather than passengers or load factor on a particular flight.
Evidence: 머니투데이 · ‘텅텅 빈 괌노선’…공정위, ‘좌석공급 의무 줄여달라’ 대한항공 요구 기각 의견 · 서울경제 · ‘신혼여행 성지’였는데 어쩌다…180석 비행기에 달랑 3명 탔는데 ‘좌석 못 줄여’ · 공정거래위원회 결정문 공개본, CaseNote 열람 경로 · 공정거래위원회 의결2024-364: 대한항공 등 5개 항공운송사업자의 기업결합 제한규정 위반행위에 대한 건 관련 시정조치 변경처분 · 공정거래위원회 · 대한항공-아시아나 기업결합 관련 시정조치 불이행 및 시정조치 변경신청 건 심의 절차 개시
The airlines asked for two changes: seats and slots
Attributed position
Korean Air, Jin Air, Asiana, Air Busan and Air Seoul cited weaker Guam tourism demand and requested two changes.
They asked to treat their voluntary return of slots as completion of the structural remedy even without an application from a replacement carrier, and to lower the minimum supply floor from 90% to 70% of 2019.
On an index of 100, that is a 20-percentage-point reduction, or about 22.2% fewer seats than the current minimum floor.
The relative reduction is (90−70)÷90×100, rounded to one decimal place.
Evidence: 공정거래위원회 · 대한항공-아시아나 기업결합 관련 시정조치 불이행 및 시정조치 변경신청 건 심의 절차 개시
The merger remedy is a competition-restoration package, not just a keep-flying rule
The FTC's 2024 amended order paired structural remedies, transferring slots and where needed traffic rights to replacement carriers, with behavioral safeguards on supply, average fares and core service quality.
For structural-remedy routes such as the two Guam routes, the 90% supply floor applies until the structural remedy is completed.
Limits also cover adverse changes in items such as free baggage and seat pitch.
Evidence: 공정거래위원회 결정문 공개본, CaseNote 열람 경로 · 공정거래위원회 의결2024-364: 대한항공 등 5개 항공운송사업자의 기업결합 제한규정 위반행위에 대한 건 관련 시정조치 변경처분 · 공정거래위원회 · 대한항공-아시아나 기업결합 관련 시정조치 불이행 및 시정조치 변경신청 건 심의 절차 개시
Why weaker demand did not trigger an automatic relaxation
Public-source analysis
The examiner's reasoning did not say that lower demand is impossible.
It said the legal threshold for changing the remedy is higher.
In the published explanation, a qualifying change had to arise after the final amended order of Dec.
24, 2024 and make compliance difficult.
The examiner did not recognize Guam's demand decline as such a new development.
Evidence: 공정거래위원회 · 대한항공-아시아나 기업결합 관련 시정조치 불이행 및 시정조치 변경신청 건 심의 절차 개시 · 머니투데이 · ‘텅텅 빈 괌노선’…공정위, ‘좌석공급 의무 줄여달라’ 대한항공 요구 기각 의견
That threshold prevents an integrated airline group from jointly shrinking supply merely because some flights look weak in the short term.
Until slots and traffic rights are actually transferred, it also seeks to reduce the risk that travelers abruptly lose seat availability and time options.
The order does not erase profitability or demand concerns: it contains routes to seek changes for unavoidable external circumstances, and for market changes after three years from the merger closing.
What travelers should take from this: it is not yet a final rejection
Limits of verification
What was announced on Sept.
30 was an FTC examiner's recommendation to reject the modification and the start of review.
The airlines may submit written views, inspect evidence and make statements; the full commission will make the final decision.
The accurate current description is therefore a recommendation against automatic capacity cuts, not a final and permanent ban on changing the Guam-route remedy.
Evidence: 공정거래위원회 · 대한항공-아시아나 기업결합 관련 시정조치 불이행 및 시정조치 변경신청 건 심의 절차 개시 · 뉴스핌 · 대한항공·아시아나, 청주~제주 좌석 축소 혐의…공정위 ‘이행강제금·고발’
Sources and references
Primary sources
- 공정거래위원회 · 대한항공-아시아나 기업결합 관련 시정조치 불이행 및 시정조치 변경신청 건 심의 절차 개시
2026-09-30 - 공정거래위원회 결정문 공개본, CaseNote 열람 경로 · 공정거래위원회 의결2024-364: 대한항공 등 5개 항공운송사업자의 기업결합 제한규정 위반행위에 대한 건 관련 시정조치 변경처분
2024-12-24
News reports
- 서울경제 · ‘신혼여행 성지’였는데 어쩌다…180석 비행기에 달랑 3명 탔는데 ‘좌석 못 줄여’
2026-09-30 22:06 KST - 머니투데이 · ‘텅텅 빈 괌노선’…공정위, ‘좌석공급 의무 줄여달라’ 대한항공 요구 기각 의견
2026-09-30 12:00 KST - 뉴스핌 · 대한항공·아시아나, 청주~제주 좌석 축소 혐의…공정위 ‘이행강제금·고발’
2026-09-30